The Expected Points (EP) model is a powerful tool in a bettor’s arsenal. This sophisticated analytical approach has revolutionised how bettors evaluate team performance and predict outcomes. By understanding and effectively utilising EP models, bettors can make more informed decisions and potentially increase their profitability in the long run.
The Expected Points model is a statistical framework that assigns a point value to every situation on the football field. It calculates the average number of points a team will likely score from a specific field position, down, and distance. This model considers historical data from thousands of plays, providing a nuanced view of each team’s offensive and defensive capabilities beyond traditional statistics.
Foundation of EP models
EP models are built on vast databases of play-by-play data, typically spanning several seasons. This data is analysed to determine the average points scored from every possible game situation. For example, a first down at the opponent’s 20-yard line might have an expected points value of 3.8, reflecting the likelihood of scoring a touchdown or field goal.
Translating EP to betting strategies
EP models offer bettors a more accurate way to assess team strength and predict game outcomes. By comparing a team’s actual performance to its expected performance based on EP, bettors can identify undervalued or overvalued teams in the betting markets. This discrepancy in perceived and actual performance creates opportunities for profitable wagers.
Identifying value in point spreads
One of the most straightforward applications of EP models in betting is evaluating point spreads. Bettors can determine whether the bookmaker’s spread offers value by calculating the expected point’s differential between two teams based on their offensive and defensive EP metrics. If the EP model suggests a wider margin than the offered spread, it might indicate a good betting opportunity.
Over/under betting using EP
EP models can benefit total points (over/under) bets. By summing the expected points for both teams and comparing them to the bookmaker’s line, bettors can make decide whether to bet the over or under. This approach considers the teams’ scoring potential and the efficiency of moving the ball and preventing opponents from scoring.
Prop bets and EP models
Advanced bettors can also use EP models to inform decisions on prop bets. For instance, quarterback passing yards or running back rushing yards props can be evaluated by looking at the teams expected points added (EPA) through passing or rushing plays. Teams with high EPA in a particular facet of the game may be more likely to exceed prop bet thresholds in those areas.
Adapting EP models for live betting
The dynamic nature of EP models makes them particularly valuable for live betting scenarios. As the game progresses, the expected points for each team constantly shift based on the current game state. Bettors who can quickly interpret these changes and compare them to live odds offered by platforms like sbobet can find value opportunities that may have yet to be apparent before the game started.
Combining EP with other metrics
Combining EP models with other analytical tools can often maximise their effectiveness in betting strategies. Metrics like DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), QBR (Quarterback Rating), and advanced defensive statistics can provide a more comprehensive view of team strength when used alongside EP models.
As with any analytical tool in sports betting, the effectiveness of EP models can diminish over time as the market becomes more efficient. Successful bettors continually refine their models, incorporate new data sources, and look for novel applications of EP analysis to maintain an edge. This might involve developing position-specific EP models or exploring how EP metrics correlate with other advanced statistics.